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Social Program Evaluation


July, 2014 Report



n In order to inform the citizenship and the main players about the details of the studies and measurements that the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy (CONEVAL, Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social) will perform during 2014 to evaluate the National Crusade Against Hunger (Crusade), we make available for you the Structure and Scope of the Evaluation Instruments of the 2013-2019 National Crusade Against Hunger Report.
n Due to the complexity of the Crusade, the number of objectives, programs, municipalities and institutions involved in its implementation, as well as the different modifications made since it started, the Council decided to elaborate studies that analyze the strategy from the different areas that constitute it and which allow a comprehensive evaluation, through several methodologies, to explain its different points of view.
n Since the first Assessment made by CONEVAL to the Crusade's design, in October, 2013, as well as the in-house analyses of the Federal Government, the Crusade has had changes, adjustments and modifications which are represented in the Mexico Without Hunger National Program, presented this year by the Ministry of Social Development (SEDESOL, Secretaría de Desarrollo Social), which constitutes the official planning instrument of the Crusade, derived from the National Development Plan.
n The document presented herein describes the modifications made to the Crusade since its Creation Decree in 2013 to what SEDESOL expressed in the Mexico Without Hunger National Program. Among theses changes are highlighted variations in some of its general objectives, as well as the inclusion of budgetary programs that initially were not included in the Decree that originated the Crusade, which shows the evolution of the strategy.
n These programs are listed in Annex 1 of this document. Annex 2 also includes the 2013-2014 Monitoring and Evaluation Cards of the programs subjected to this practice. These evaluations comprise the following elements of analysis for each budgetary program that integrates the Crusade: advancements in its results, coverage extent, budgetary practice, strengths, challenges, recommendations and changes in the Crusade's frame.
n The studies and investigations detailed herein will serve as input for the 2014 Crusade Evaluation Report, which will be part of the 2014 Evaluation Report on Social Development Policy, which will be presented at the end of this year.
n One of the most important instruments of measurement and evaluation is the performance of the National Survey of Household Income and Expenditure, as well as the Socioeconomic Conditions Module to be performed by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) between August and November 2014. With these instruments, INEGI will perform an information collection about the situation of families in the country (level of education, school attendance, quality of homes, level of income, access to health services and social security, access to food) so afterwards, in 2015, CONEVAL can account for the changes in the families’ wellbeing, both in all the country and in the set of municipalities of the Crusade. These measurements to home level will be systematically performed, in collaboration with INEGI, between 2014 and 2018 in order to evaluate these advancements to medium- and long-term and to compare the results with the situation in 2012 and 2010.
n As in all poverty measurements performed by CONEVAL since their creation, the citizenship can access the databases, calculation software and methodology from our Internet website ( so the measurement and evaluation processes can have a complete transparency.
n The evaluation instruments detailed in this document seek to measure both the intermediate processes of the Crusade (capacity to coordinate and promote social participation, performance of programs that comprise the strategy, actions to increase the productivity of small producers) as the final results of this governmental strategy. In other words, the evaluation instruments are oriented to comprehensively measure the general performance of the strategy.
n To evaluate the social policy it is not enough to know if the actions have been properly implemented (the services and products reach the target population, or it has been executed all the expense assigned along the year), it is also important to measure the final results registered in homes. The intermediate actions can only be successful if these affect the families’ wellbeing.
n In the initial analysis made during 2014 and which intermediate evaluation will be available at the end of the year, it is observed, for instance, that the Crusade has have important advancements in the coordination between federal state secretariats and also between government orders. It has been important to know that each secretariat has defined goals to reduce extreme poverty in food (target population of the Crusade) in their corresponding action areas (educational gap, access to health services, access to social security, quality and spaces of the dwelling, access to food). The same practice is performed in states and municipalities through local committees of the Crusade. This might suppose that the social deprivation can decrease in homes of the Crusade municipalities.
n But at the same time, CONEVAL monthly analyzes the evolution of food baskets cost, as well as quarterly analyzes the labor income of families, making public these indicators in this Internet website. The results of these variables show that since 2008 the income for work of the Mexicans has increased, in average, less than the increase in the value of the food basket cost, which reflects a reduction of the purchasing power of the labor incomes. Although the major effect of this phenomenon was registered between 2008 and 2010, in the middle of the international financial crisis, the problem still remains and this affects the homes of all the country.
n Because of this, the measurement and evaluation to home level from the information of INEGI and CONEVAL might tell us which is the situation of families in both social deprivation situations (food, education, health, home, etc.) as regarding to their actual income.
n The objectives of the comprehensive evaluation performed to the Crusade are to provide to the responsible persons of the strategy the elements that allow to continuously improve its design and implementation, as well as to contribute with the transparency and accountability of the evaluation of the social development policy in Mexico.
The evaluation instruments that CONEVAL implements are the following:
The evaluation instruments detailed in this document seek to evaluate the appropriateness of the programs included to solve problems of hunger, malnutrition, production and productivity of the small producers, as well as to define a design for the evaluation of the intersecretarial and intergovernmental coordination against extreme poverty and deprivation of food.

1- Changes in the situation of the population in extreme poverty and deprivation of food in the country and in the municipalities of the Crusade

The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of poverty in the municipalities where the Crusade operates in, differentiated in relation to the moment in which they were included in the strategy. Based on the information generated by INEGI, since the collection that starts on August 2014, CONEVAL will report these poverty calculations in 2015. The purpose is to know the evolution of the indicators that confirm the poverty measurement, extreme poverty and extreme poverty in food. For that purpose, it will be compared the results of the calculations of extreme poverty in food in the set of 400 municipalities of the first phase of implementation of the Crusade, for the years 2010 and 2012. In the same way, it will be performed comparisons of the calculations of extreme poverty in food in the set of 612 municipalities incorporated to the second phase of the Crusade.

In addition, it will be performed calculations of extreme poverty in food in specific populations, such as Priority Attention Areas (ZAP, Zonas de Atención Prioritaria) within the 400 and 612 municipalities. Also, it will be presented an outlook of the prevailing situation in five specific municipalities that integrate the Crusade since 2013: Zinacantán, Chiapas; Guachochi, Chihuahua; Mártir de Cuilapan, Guerrero; San Felipe del Progreso, State of Mexico and Tehuacán, Puebla.


2. Evolution of the food basket cost and Poverty Labor Trend Index (ITLP, Índice de Tendencia Laboral de la Pobreza)

This Index shows the trend of the percentage of people that cannot acquire the food basket with the labor income. An increase in the index means that the percentage of people that cannot buy a food basket with their labor income increased during the quarterly period reported.

The ITLP does not constitute a poverty measurement, because it does not encompass all the sources of income nor all the dimensions of social deprivation of the official poverty measurement; however, due to its importance as a short-term preventive sign about the situation of the labor income of families in relation to the food basket cost, this information will serve as input for the evaluation of the Crusade.

Additionally, the poverty measurement uses two lines of income: the minimum wellbeing line, which is equivalent to the food basket value per person at month; and the wellbeing line, which is equivalent to the total value of the food basket and the non-food basket per person at month. To update the food basket value, the wellbeing line and the minimum wellbeing line, CONEVAL uses the National Consumer Price Index (INPC, Índice Nacional de Precios al Consumidor) published by INEGI. This information is updated by CONEVAL every month.


 Assessment on food and nutrition

The objective is to have an assessment of the programs linked to food and nutrition. The analysis will be based on the Specific Performance Evaluations, Monitoring Cards, Federal CONEVAL Inventory of Programs and Actions of Social Development, as well as other external information sources that the evaluating organism considers appropriate.


4. Assessment of the productive capacity of rural homes and post-harvest losses

In order to characterize the situation of rural homes in relation to production and income, as well as the post-harvest and food losses during the storage and transport, it will be perform an analysis of the conditions of rural homes in Mexico which will allow to identify elements that influence their productive capacity. The analysis will allow to identify problems in the rural population of the country, examples of interventions implemented in the national and international area for their attention, as well as the link of the design elements of the Crusade with the attention of specific problems and the achievement of the objectives planned.

For that purpose, it will be used as main input the 2013 Survey to Rural Homes about Production and Income made by CONEVAL to characterize the situation of the rural population of the country and, through office work, to have an analysis of the interventions of public policy similar to the Crusade and to the programs that integrate this strategy.


5.  Study about the community participation as instrument of the exercise of social rights

The objective of this study is to identify and describe the "lessons learned" in relation to the social participation based on the case analysis of national and international programs of social development that have elements similar to the ones of the Crusade. There will be a document useful to identify and promote the continuity of effective actions in terms of community participation as well as to distinguish the aspects that can be improved.


6.  Exploratory Study of SEDESOL Soup Kitchens

The objective of this study is to elaborate an analytical document through the exploratory analysis of SEDESOL Soup Kitchens in order to know the factors that support their implementation. Through the office analysis, it will be documented the good practices and the "lessons learned" of similar experiences. Through the exploratory analysis of SEDESOL Soup Kitchens, it will be known the factors that support the implementation of the same.


7.  Analysis of the Crusade advancements in terms of planning, coverage, operation and results

Through the structure of the analysis about the advancements, strengths and opportunity areas of the Crusade in the first phase of implementation, it will be available documentary information about the modifications to the documents of the same. This study is constituted by two components: the updating of the assessment and advancements in the implementation of the Crusade and the analysis of the advancements in the implementation and the intermediate results obtained.


8.  Study of the actions of the federal and state governments to incorporate the objectives of the Crusade and the poverty indicators in the social development policy

The objective is to know the progress in the institutionalization of the poverty indicators in the social policy in the federal entities. To do this, it will be implemented qualitative research techniques of exploratory character. The study will seek to understand the way in which the decision making process in terms of social policy is adopting the poverty indicators and the objectives of the Crusade in the federal entities.


9.  Assessment of the interinstitutional coordination. First Phase

It is planned to make the evaluation design of the interinstitutional coordination as first phase, in order to identify elements that can contribute to improve the structure with which the strategy coordination is performed. The project will have three components: i) the proposal of the evaluation instrument; ii) the pilot of the initial proposal of the evaluation design, and iii) improvements of the design of the evaluation instrument.

The design of the evaluation instrument considers to analyze two axes of the interinstitutional coordination: (1) the procedural coordination, with which is sought to connect the structures and processes and (2) the substantive coordination, from which the programs have a coherent design among them.


10.  Evaluation of the social participation. First Phase

This document will present the evaluation design of the objective of the community participation of the Crusade. The specific objectives pursued are the following: 1) to characterize the situation of the social participation in programs and strategies of social development similar to the Crusade, in order to identify models of lessons learned; and 2) to make a proposal of the design of the objective evaluation of the community participation of the Crusade.

With this, it will be elaborated a proposal of the design of the objective evaluation of the community participation of the Crusade; in order to identify the elements of improvement in the evaluation design piloted and to present a design of the objective evaluation of the community participation of the Crusade.


11.   Evaluation Design of PESA

The Strategic Project for Food Security (PESA, Proyecto Estratégico de Seguridad Alimentaria) is a rural development strategy for alienated areas that operate with the methodology of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura). Its general objective is to contribute to the development of capacities of people and domestic agriculture and livestock in rural locations of high and very high marginalization.

As part of the evaluation design of PESA, it will be analyze the feasibility to define a methodology for the creation of a sample of localities treated and not treated that are comparable in order to perform the information collection which allows the creation of a baseline of the evaluation and being able to measure the effect of the program with follow-up information to be obtained in 2017. Also, as part of the analysis, it will be define indicators in which it might be measured the impact of PESA in the setting of the Crusade.


12.  Design of the impact evaluation of the Crusade

It will be made a design of the impact evaluation of the Crusade based on the information from 2010 Census of Population and Housing (2010 Census), Socioeconomic Conditions Module of the 2010 and 2014 Incomes and Expenses National Survey (MCS-ENIGH), performed by INEGI, and the poverty measurement to municipal level of CONEVAL 2010 and 2016.


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