Bibliografía y fuentes de información

.::CONEVAL PÁGINA PRINCIPAL::.>Evaluación de Programas Sociales>Bibliografía y fuentes de información>Bibliografia de Evaluacion de Impacto

Evaluación de la Política Social



Como marco de referencia para analizar la factibilidad de realizar evaluaciones de impacto, se pone a disposición de las unidades de evaluación y del público en general la siguiente bibliografía temática:

  • Ahorro​

A​porte​la, Fernando. "The Effects of Financial Access on Savings by Low-Income People". Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, October 2000.


  • Aseguramiento

Jensen, Robert. "Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children." American Economic Review 90, no. 2 (2000): 399–405.

Qian Juncheng; Xu Ling; Gao Jun; Lindelow, Magnus; Wagstaff, Adam "Extending health insurance to the rural population: an impact evaluation of China's new cooperative medical scheme" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS4150 2007/03

Udry, Christopher. "Credit Markets in Northern Nigeria: Credit as Insurance in a Rural Economy." World Bank Economic Review 4, no. 3 (1990): 251–69.

Wagstaff, Adam "Health insurance for the poor: initial impacts of Vietnam's health care fund for the poor" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS4134 2007/02

Wagstaff, Adam "Social health insurance reexamined" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS4111 2007/01

Ivaschenko, Oleksiy; Gragnolati, Michele; Lokshin, Michael; Das Gupta, Monica "Improving child nutrition outcomes in India: can the integrated child development services be more effective?" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3647 2005/06 


  • Artículos de metodología general

Angrist, Joshua and Alan Krueger. 1999. "Empirical Strategies in Labor Economics." Handbook of Labor Economics 3(1): 1277-1366.

Heckman, James and E.J. Vytlacil. 2006. "Econometric Evaluation of Social Programs." Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 6, James Heckman and E. Leamer, eds., Amsterdam: North Holland.

Heckman, James, R. Lalonde and J. Smith (1999), "The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs." Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3, Ashenfelter, A. and D. Card, eds., Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.

Imbens, Guido. 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A Review." Review of Economics and Statistics 86(1): 4-29. 

Meyer, Bruce D. 1995. "Natural and Quasi-Experiments in Economics." Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13(2): 151-161.

Shadish, Cook, and Campbell, 2002. Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Generalized Causal Inference. Boston: Houghton Mifflin.


  • Se sugiere la siguiente lectura:

Criterios para realizar evaluaciones de impacto obligatorias que garanticen decisiones de política pública con información adecuada.


Adicionalmente se presenta la siguiente lista que ofrece el Banco Mundial:​

  • Evaluación Económica Integral de Programas

Bourguignon, F., L. Pereira Da Silva, and Nicholas H. Stern. 2002. "Evaluating the Poverty Impact of Economic Policies: Some Analytical Challenges." Processed. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

Lise, Jeremy, Seitz, Shannon and Jeffrey Smith. 2004 "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs." NBER Working Paper 10283 (February), National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Heckman, James J. 2001. "Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture." Journal of Political Economy 109(4): 673-748.

Heckman, James J., Lance Lochner, and Christopher Taber. 1998. "General-Equilibrium Treatment Effects: A Study of Tuition Policy." The American Economic Review 88(2): 381-86.

Todd, Petra and Kenneth I. Wolpin (2006). "Ex-Ante Evaluation of Social Programs." PIER Working Paper 06-022.

Baker, Judy. 2000. Evaluating the Impact of Development Projects on Poverty: A Handbook for Practitioners. Directions in Development, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Also available in French, Russian and Spanish. 

Banerjee, Abhijit and others. "Making Aid Work," Boston Review, July/August 2006.

Cameron, A. Colin and Pravin K. Trivedi. 2005. Microeconometrics: Methods and Applications. Cambirdge University Press.

Duflo, Esther, Rachel Glennerster, and Michael Kremer. 2004 "Randomized Evaluations of Interventions in Social Science Delivery." Development Outreach March 2004. 

Duflo, Esther. 2004. "Scaling up and Evaluation." ABCDE 2004.

Jae Lee, Myoung. 2005. Micro‐Econometrics for Policy, Program, and Treatment Effects. Advanced Texts in Econometrics. Oxford University Press.

Morgan, Stephen L. and Christopher Winship. 2007. Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research. Cambridge University Press.

Prennushi, G., G. Rubio, and K. Subbarao. 2000. "Monitoring and Evaluation." In Sourcebook for Poverty Reduction Strategies. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.

Ravallion, Martin. 1999. "The Mystery of the Vanishing Benefits: Ms. Speedy Analyst's Introduction to Evaluation." Policy Research Working Paper 2153, World Bank, Development Economics Research Group, Washington, D.C.

Ravallion, Martin. 2003. "Assessing the Poverty Impact of an Assigned Program." In Francois Bourguignon and Luiz A. Pereira da Silva (eds.) The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution: Evaluation Techniques and Tools, Volume 1. New York: Oxford University Press.

Ravallion, Martin. 2006. "Evaluating Anti-Poverty Programs." Policy Research Working Paper 3625 World Bank, Development Economics Research Group, Washington, D.C. (Also available in Spanish)


  • Educación

Angrist, Joshua, and Victor Lavy. "Using Maimonides' Rule to Estimate the Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement." Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 2 (1999): 533-575.

Araujo, Maria Caridad; Schady, "Norbert Cash transfers, conditions, school enrollment, and child work: evidence from a randomized experiment in Ecuador" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3930 2006/06

Das, Jishnu "Equity in educational expenditures: can government subsidies help?" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3249 2004/03

Duflo, Esther. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment." American Economic Review 91, 4 (2001): 795-813.

Duflo, Esther. "The Medium Run Consequences of Educational Expansion: Evidence from a Large School Construction Program in Indonesia." Journal of Development Economics (forthcoming). 

Kremer, Michael, Paul Glewwe, and Sylvie Moulin. "Textbooks and Test Scores: Evidence from a Prospective Evaluation in Kenya." Mimeo, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 1998.

Krishnan, Pramila; Habyarimana, James; Dercon, Stefan; Das, Jishnu "When can school inputs improve test scores?" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3217 2004/02

Krishnan, Pramila; Habyarimana, James; Dercon, Stefan; Das, Jishnu "Public and private funding of basic education in Zambia : implications of budgetary allocations for service delivery" (World Bank Working Paper) 29085 2004/01 

Lee, Nannette; King, Elizabeth M.; Gultiano, Socorro; Ghuman, Sharon; Duazo, Paulita; Behrman, Jere R.; Armecin, Graeme "Early childhood development through an integrated program : evidence from the Philippines" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3922 2006/05

Schady, Norbert; Filmer, Deon "Getting girls into school: evidence from a scholarship program in Cambodia" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3910 2006/05

  • Género y Familia

Duflo, Esther. "Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old Age Pension and Intra-household Allocation in South Africa." Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Economics, Working paper WP 00-05. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT, 2000.


  • Mercados de crédito

Banerjee, Abhijit. "Contracting Constraints, Credit Markets and Economic Development." In Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Theory and Applications. Eight World Congress of the Econometric Society. Edited by M. Dewatripoint, L. Hansen, and S. Turnovsky. Vol. III. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 1-46. 

Banerjee, Abhijit, and Esther Duflo. "Do Firms Want to Borrow More? Testing Credit Constraints Using a Directed Lending Program." 2002.

Burgess, Robin, and Rohini Pande. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment." Washington, DC: IMF 2002.  

Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian sicial Banking Experiment

Lindelow, Magnus; Wagstaff, Adam. "Can insurance increase financial risk? The curious case of health insurance in China" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3741 2005/10

Morduch, Jonathan. "The Microfinance Promise." Journal of Economic Literature 37, no. 4 (1999): 1569–1614.


  • Nutrición y salud

Banerjee, Abhijit V., Angus Deaton, and Esther Duflo. "Wealth, Health and Health Services in Rural Rajasthan." American Economic Review 94, no. 2 (2004): 326-330.

Duflo, Esther. "Grandmothers and Granddaughters: Old-age Pensions and Intrahousehold Allocation in South Africa." World Bank Economic Review 17, no. 1 (2003): 1–25. 

Miguel, Edward, and Michael Kremer. "Worms: Education and Health Externalities in Kenya." NBER Working Paper No. w8481, 2001.

Miguel, Edward, and Michael Kremer. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities." Econometrica 72, no. 1 (2004): 159–218.

Svensson, Jakob; Reinikka, Ritva "Working for God? Evaluating service delivery of religious not-for-profit health care providers in Uganda" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3058 2003/05

Yu, Shengchao; Wagstaff, Adam "Do health sector reforms have their intended impacts ? The World Bank's Health VIII project in Gansu province, China" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3743 2005/10

Wagstaff, Adam; Lindelow, Magnus "Health shocks in China : are the poor and uninsured less protected?" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3740 2005/10


  • Pobreza, medio ambiente y desarrollo

Limin Wang; Hamilton, Kirk; Bolt, Katharine; Wheeler, David; Pandey, Kiran; Meisner, Craig; Dasgupta, Susmita; Buys, Piet "Measuring up - new directions for environmental programs at the World Bank" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3097 2003/07

Wheeler, David; Pandey, Kiran; Meisner, Craig; Dasgupta, Susmita; Buys, Piet; Hamilton, Kirk; Ijjasz-Vasquez, Ede Jorge; Acharya, Anjali "How has environment mattered ? An analysis of World Bank resource allocation" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3269

Wheeler, David; Pinnoi, Nat; Pandey, Kiran; Nygard, Jostein; Meisner, Craig; Larsen, Bjorn; Deichmann, Uwe; Dasgupta, Susmita; Chomitz, Kenneth; Buys, Piet "The Economics of Regional Poverty-Environment Programs: An Application for Lao People's Democratic Republic" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS3269 2004/04 

Wheeler, David; Meisner, Craig; Deichmann, Uwe; Dasgupta, Susmita "The poverty/environment nexus in Cambodia and Lao People's Democratic Republic" (World Bank Working Paper) WPS2960 2003/01

Wheeler, David; Meisner, Craig; Deichmann, Uwe; Dasgupta, Susmita "The poverty/environment nexus : findings for Lao" PDR (World Bank Working Paper) 29004 2002/11


  • Técnicas Experimentales

Burtless, Gary. 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research." Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(2):63-84. Available to authorized users at

Coady, David, Limin Wang, and Xinyi Dai. 2001. "Community Programs and Women's Participation The Chinese Experience." Policy Research Working Paper 2622, World Bank, Development Economics Research Group, Washington D.C. 

Duflo, Esther & Michael Kremer. 2005. "Use of Randomization in the Evaluation of Development Effectiveness." in George Pitman, Osvaldo Feinstein and Gregory Ingram (eds.) Evaluating Development Effectiveness. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.

Grossman, Jean Baldwin. 1994. "Evaluating Social Policies: Principles and U.S. Experience." The World Bank Research Observer 9(2): 159-80.

Heckman, James J. and Jeffrey A. Smith. 1997. "The Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates: Evidence from the National JTPA Study." NBER Working Paper 6105 (July), National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. 

Heckman, James J., and Edward Vytlacil. 2001."Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects." The American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 91(2): 107-111.

Heckman, James J., and Jeffrey A. Smith. 1995."Assessing the Case for Social Experiments." Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(2): 85-110.

Heckman, James J., Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith and Petra E. Todd. 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data." Econometrica 66: 1017-98.

Heckman, James J., Jeffrey A. Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1998. "Accounting for Dropouts in Evaluation of Social Programs." The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1): 1-11.

Heckman, James J., Jeffrey A. Smith, and Nancy Clements. 1997."Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts." The Review of Economic Studies, 64: 487-535.

Holland, Paul W. 1986. "Statistics and Causal Inference." Journal of the American Statistical Association. 81(1): 945-960.

Kremer, Michael. 2003. "Randomized Evaluations of Educational Programs in Developing Countries: Some Lessons." American Economic Review 93(2): 102-106. 

Moffitt, Robert. 2003. "The Role of Randomized Field Trials in Social Science Research: A Perspective from Evaluations of Reforms of Social Welfare Programs" mimeo, Institute for Research on Poverty.

Zhu, Shu-Hong. 1999. "A Method to obtain a Randomized Control Group where it seems Impossible." Evaluation Review 23(4): 363-77


  • Técnicas No-experimentales y Cuasi-experimentales

Angrist, Joshua and Alan Krueger. 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments." Journal of Economic Perspectives 15(4): 69-87.

Angrist, Joshua and Victor Lavy. 1999. "Using Maimonides’ Rule to Estimate the Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement." Quarterly Journal of Economics 114(2): 533-575.

Angrist, Joshua, Guido Imbens and Donald Rubin. 1996. "Identification of Causal Effects Using Instrumental Variables." Journal of the American Statistical Association 91(434): 444-455. 

Battistin, Erich and Enrico Rettore. 2002. "Testing for Programme Effects in a Regression Discontinuity Design with Imperfect Compliance." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 165: 39-57. 

Dehejia, Rajeev H. and Sadek Wahba. 1999. "Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs." Journal of the American Statistical Association 94(448): 1053–1062.

Glazerman, Steven, Dan Levy and David Myers. 2003. "Nonexperimental versus Experimental Estimates of Earnings Impacts." The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 589(1): 63-93. 

Heckman, James J. 1989. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training." NBER Working Paper 2861 (February), National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.

Heckman, James J., Hidehiko Ichimura, and Petra E. Todd. 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Program." Review of Economic Studies, 64: 605-654.

Hotz, V. Joseph, Guido Imbens, Julie Mortimer. 2005. "Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences at Other Locations." Journal of Econometrics 125: 241-270.

Jalan, Jyotsna, and Martin Ravallion. 1999. "Income Gains to the Poor from Workfare: Estimates for Argentina's Trabajar Program." Policy Research Working Paper 2149, World Bank, Development Economics Research Group, Washington, D.C. 

LaLonde, Robert J. 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data." American Economic Review 76(4): 604-20.

Michalopoulos, Charles, Howard S. Bloom, and Carolyn J. Hill. 2004. "Can Propensity-score Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs?" The Review of Economics and Statistics 86(1): 156-79.

Van der Klaauw, Wilbert. 1997. "A Regression-Discontinuity Evaluation of the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment." C.V. Starr Working Paper RR# 97-10


  • Tenencia de la Tierra

Banerjee, Abhijit, Paul Gertler, and Maitresh Ghatak. "Empowerment and Efficiency: Tenancy Reform in West Bengal." Journal of Political Economy 110, 2 (2002): 239-280. Besley, Timothy, and Robin Burgess. "Land Reform, Poverty Reduction, and Growth: Evidence from India." Quarterly Journal of Economics 115, 2 (2000): 389-430


  • ​Trabajo Infantil 

B​asu, Kaushik, and Pham Hoang Van. "The Economics of Child Labor." American Economic Review 88, no. 3 (1998): 412–427.

​Carvalho, Irineu E., "Household Income as a Determinant of Child Labor and School Enrollment in Brazil: Evidence from a Social Security Reform" (November 30, 2000)